March 13th, 2013
Well, equity markets have bulled their way to a Nascar-like start in early 2013. With the DJIA setting new daily all-time highs and the S&P 500 creeping toward its all-time high, we have had a great start these first ten weeks. This is on top of a double-digit return in 2012 for most equity investors. Can we sustain this almost four-year bull market rally? We should keep in mind a couple of dates. As we enjoy this run, October 9, 2007 was the S&P 500 all-time high of 1,565.15. The S&P 500 is up 129% over the last four years. Before we start celebrating, let’s compare that to the Nasdaq Composite. Its all-time high was 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000. It is nowhere near reaching that mark which shows how uneven equities have performed. The DJIA has recovered from the financial crisis and continues to set daily highs. The S&P 500 is only .9% away from its high, but the Nasdaq Composite is roughly 35% from its high mark. Perhaps there are opportunities for more returns as there are many stocks at relatively cheap prices, or perhaps we’re due for a market correction.
The U.S. economy continues to be one of the strongest globally as well. This is why you are seeing investor dollars pulled from emerging markets and invested into our domestic market. Continuing with the economy, nonfarm payrolls employment increased by 236,000 in February and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7%. Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care. Jobs continued to trend upward in retail trade (+24,000). This industry has added 252,000 jobs over the last 12 months. Consumer confidence rebounded in February and the index (Consumer Confidence Index) now stands at 69.6, which is up from 58.4 in January. This is an interesting sign due to retail stores reporting sluggish sales in February. Some of these results were attributed to weather factors, rising payroll taxes, and high gas prices. Sales of new family homes were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 437,000 and inventory for homes for sale seems to be slim. As new houses come on the market, many are snatched up very quickly leaving prospective buyers scratching their heads. This leads us to believe that this spring market will produce very strong home sales. It doesn’t hurt either that interest rates continue to touch on historic lows.
Politically, Congress seems to be finally turning the corner and working together to solve their budget crisis (let’s not hold our breath on this one). Meanwhile, the elections in Europe seem to be causing plenty of uprisings. It’s also somewhat comical that Dennis Rodman has been canvassing in North Korea (very big basketball fans) and ancient Rome. If we are hoping that he will decrease tensions between our two countries, God help us all. As always if you have any question about your accounts or opening an account with us, we can be reached at 952.500.8854 or 248.792.6746.
Sincerely,
J.B. L’Esperance, ChFC