April 8, 2014
Dear Client (s):
As I draft this letter, we are finally having a positive day in the stock market. This is after three awful days with just about everything in the red. The start of 2014 has certainly been different from 2013. After the S&P 500 being up over 50% in two years, we should expect some type of slowdown. There has been extreme volatility and a considerable amount of sell-off of equity positions. Much of this is due to fear and profit taking. The momentum stocks are taking it the worst, but I have one piece of advice: stay the course. There hasn’t been any indication that we’re in a market (dare I say it) correction yet. Stick to your strategy and remember why you’re in it. I hope to give you some good fundamental reasons below to feel better about the outlook.
It is encouraging that the U.S. dollar is still strong compared to many other currencies. When this happens, emerging markets currencies are usually weak and they’re struggling to find growth. This has been the case for a while now and even though emerging markets has had an upswing as an investment, the U.S. dollar is still the stronger place to be. Businesses added 192,000 jobs in March, mostly in professional and business services as the weather was milder and we exited the winter doldrums. It is also encouraging that jobs were revised upward by 37,000 for January and February. Unemployment stayed neutral at 6.7% as some people stopped looking for work. Auto sales jumped 6% last month to 1.5MM, the most since November. Home sales and construction have been weak in recent months. Cold weather has caused some of this decline but higher mortgage rates and limited inventory have held back sales. As I talk to local builders, it seems that they are keeping very busy. Maybe this is just a pocket but, hopefully, this is a signal of positive things to come.
On February 3, 2014, Janet Yellen was rung in as the new Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This is noteworthy as she is the first female to lead the Fed. Mrs. Yellen said that if tapering were complete by the end of 2014, there would be a six-month window before the Federal Funds rate would be potentially increased. This puts us in the middle of 2015. It’s also interesting that in the years leading up to Fed tightenings, equities have appeared quite attractive. This could be a sign of good things to come. We will have to wait and see.
Please call us at 952.500.8854 or 248.765.6863 with any questions about your accounts or if you are interested in our strategies.
Sincerely,
J.B. L’Esperance, ChFC